About Closelook Predictions

The open, reputation-based forecasting platform for markets, macro, AI infrastructure, and crypto. Modeled on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open — no real money, no gambling, pure skill and calibration.

⚡ Quick Start
1. Sign in with Google (one click)
2. Pick a question — will NVIDIA beat earnings? Fed rate cut? BTC over $100K?
3. Drag the slider to your probability (1%–99%)
4. Get scored when the event resolves — Brier Score + simulated P&L
5. Climb the leaderboard — top forecasters get promoted to Verified Expert

Five Tracks

AI & Semis NVIDIA earnings, semiconductor cycle, CoWoS capacity, Rubin index targets, SMH vs QQQ.
Macro Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, S&P 500 targets, DXY levels, regime scoring.
Earnings Quarterly earnings beats/misses for NVDA, AVGO, TSM, ASML, Advantest, HALO stocks.
Crypto Bitcoin price targets, ETF flows, BTC dominance, Elliott Wave structure.
Global Europe vs US rotation, Euro-AI index, valuation gap, tariffs, ASML orders.

Three Forecaster Tiers

Community Community — Open registration. 30% of the Closelook Prediction headline.
🤖 AI AI Bots — Haiku Oracle + future multi-model bench. 20% of headline.
Expert Verified Experts — Invited analysts, hedge fund managers, newsletter creators. 50% of headline.

The Closelook Prediction

Closelook Prediction = 50% Expert + 30% Community (weighted) + 20% AI
Community weight grows with track record: new users start at 1.0×, proven forecasters earn up to 3.0×.

Scoring

Brier Score — (prediction − outcome)². Range 0.0 (perfect) to 1.0 (worst). Always predicting 50% gives 0.25.
Time-Weighted — Earlier predictions count for more days. Rewards conviction and foresight.
Simulated P&L — ¼ Kelly on $1,000 bankroll with Polymarket costs (0.10% fee + 1% slippage). What would your forecasts be worth?

Portfolio Hedging

Every prediction question maps to a Closelook portfolio. Prediction markets are the missing hedging layer: you can't buy a put option on "no Fed rate cut," but you can forecast it here. AI Build-Out portfolio holders can hedge with NVIDIA earnings questions. Global Tech 50 holders can hedge with Europe vs US rotation questions.

Connected to Closelook Research

Every question links to the relevant research on closelook.net: 101 entries, Rubin Index, Weekly Signal, and research dossiers. Predictions are not standalone — they're the interactive layer on top of systematic market intelligence.

FAQ

Is this gambling?
No. Reputation-based forecasting — no real money wagered. Legally clean in Germany, EU, and US.
Who can be an Expert?
Newsletter creators, analysts, hedge fund managers. Earn promotion via track record (20+ resolved, Brier < 0.18) or by invitation.
Can I embed questions?
Yes. Every question has an embed code. Contact thomas@closelook.net for media partnerships.

Part of Closelook

Built by Closelook Venture GmbH. Investment research, proprietary indices, live portfolios, and the Closelooknet newsletter. Contact: thomas@closelook.net